Understanding URPD
UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD)
Shows the distribution of Bitcoin's supply by the price at which each UTXO was last moved. Each bar represents how much BTC has its cost basis in that price range.
URPD (USD-weighted) — Invested Wealth
Weights each UTXO by its dollar value at acquisition. Shows where capital is concentrated.
Invested Wealth(P) = P · S(P)
URPD (BTC-weighted) — Supply Distribution
Shows raw BTC supply at each cost-basis price, unweighted by dollar value.
S(P) = Σ utxo.value where utxo.price ∈ [P, P + ΔP)
Realized Cap
The total value of all UTXOs priced at their last-moved price. Reflects the aggregate cost basis of the entire supply.
RC = Σᵢ Pᵢ · Sᵢ for all price bins i
Long-Term Holders (LTH)
UTXOs that have not moved for ≥ 155 days. Represents conviction holders and long-term accumulators.
LTH = { utxo | age(utxo) ≥ 155 days }
Short-Term Holders (STH)
UTXOs that have moved within the last 155 days. Represents recent buyers, traders, and speculators.
STH = { utxo | age(utxo) < 155 days }
Supply in Profit / Loss
Percentage of invested wealth (USD) or supply (BTC) with cost basis below/above spot price.
Profit % = Σ W(P) for P ≤ Spot / Σ W(P) × 100
Bottom Signal
Triggers when USD invested wealth in loss exceeds the threshold. Historically coincides with cycle bottoms.
Signal when: Loss% ≥ Threshold (default 80%)